This study examines the expected mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHG) and black carbon emissions associated with the transition from traditional biomass to clean fuels and clean woodburning cookstoves (CCS) in the Mexican residential sector for the period 2014–2030. We developed a spatial-explicit model at a county level to understand the GHG trade-offs associated with different spatial-temporal CCS and clean fuels dissemination strategies. A business as usual (BAU) and three alternative scenarios with different targets for CCS and LPG dissemination were constructed. Results show that a scenario focusing exclusively on a fast LPG-penetration does not deliver the largest GHG benefits, as there is substantial stacking with traditional open fires. On the contrary, the combination of CCS plancha-type stoves disseminated in regions with high non-renewable fuelwood harvesting (fNRB) together with LPG, allows minimizing of stacking with traditional fires and provide the largest benefits. Also, different scenarios result in contrasting spatial distribution of target counties and mitigation benefits, and therefore have important public policy implications. Cumulative mitigation ranged from 50 MtCO2 e to 126.3 MtCO2 e , depending on the scenario, representing from 14% to 35% of BAU emissions, and up to 11% of projected country GHG emissions to 2030. A sensitivity analysis also showed that despite the variation across three of the main variables affecting GHG's emissions, the CCS-fNRB-LPG scenario remains the most effective and the high LPG penetration scenario remains the most unfavorable. The study helped to identify 200 high-priority municipalities (8% of total) located in the Center-South of Mexico encompassing 30% national FW consumption, 31% total FW users, and 55% of total GHG mitigation. In these high-priority counties a win–win policy in terms of social, health and environmental objectives may be achieved in the short-term, improving the efficacy of public policies related to GHG mitigation, universal access to clean energy, and sustainable development.
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