The climate crisis and poor urban air quality have put the transport sector decarbonization on the agenda for most governments, who have focused on switching propulsion technologies, leaving aside the potential of modal changes to reduce emissions. We present a system dynamics model to simulate decarbonization scenarios for urban land transport, including technological change, travel dynamics, and their feedback structure, applied to the case of Bogotá, Colombia. Alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) would compose 52.7% of the fleet by 2050, demand 768 GWh/year, and reduce CO2eq emissions by 14.6% and PM emissions by 20.3% in the business-as-usual scenario. However, it would not be enough to reach the emissions reduction target from the transport sector by 2030. Although scenario analysis suggests that economic growth would accelerate the diffusion of AFVs, policymakers should expect slow transport decarbonization due to the inertia of the old vehicle fleet and the unchanged consolidated travel behavior.
Decarbonization, Sustainable transport, Electric vehicles, Alternative fuel vehicles, Scenario analysis, System dynamics
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