Semi‐Parametric Generalized Additive Vector Autoregressive Models of Spatial Basis Dynamics

Peer Reviewed
27 June 2018

Selin Guney, Barry K. Goodwin, Andrés Riquelme

An extensive line of research has examined linkages among spatially‐distinct markets. We apply semi‐parametric, generalized additive vector autoregressive models to a consideration of basis linkages among North Carolina corn and soybean markets. An extensive suite of linearity tests suggests that basis and price relationships are nonlinear. Marginal effects, transmission elasticities, and generalized impulse responses are utilized to describe patterns of adjustment among markets. The semi‐parametric models are compared to standard threshold vector autoregressive models and are found to reveal more statistical significance and substantially more nonlinearity in basis adjustments. Marginal effects are nonlinear and impulse responses suggest greater adjustments to extreme shocks and asymmetric adjustment patterns. The results provide evidence in favor of efficiently linked markets.


Files and links

Sustainable Development Goals
Publication reference
Guney, S., Goodwin, B. K., & Riquelme, A. (2018). Semi‐Parametric Generalized Additive Vector Autoregressive Models of Spatial Basis Dynamics. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 101(2), 541–562. doi:10.1093/ajae/aay033

Request a publication

Due to Copyright we cannot publish this article but you are very welcome to request a copy from the author. Please just fill in the information beneath.

Authors I want to contact
Publication | 4 May 2020