Abstract
Governance that shapes access to critical minerals is becoming a key constraint on the global energy transition. Demand is rising, while national policy interventions in mineral supply chains are increasing. These changes affect supply security and the pace of decarbonization. However, the systemic risks across countries and policy tools remain poorly measured. We construct a global resource nationalism risk index for major economies from 2000 to 2023. Policy measures are converted into a comparable scale of intervention intensity and combined with mineral production structures to estimate supply risk. We find that resource nationalism is no longer confined to traditional resource exporters. High-income economies are increasingly involved. Risks are also becoming more concentrated among a small number of major producers. These risks propagate through global supply chains, placing growing pressure on the energy transition.
Highlights
- We decompose and quantify resource nationalism as an institutional phenomenon.
- Resource nationalism risk is concentrated in a small number of dominant producers.
- Resource nationalism has evolved into a structural feature of critical mineral governance.
- National policy interventions generate spillover risks along critical mineral supply chains.
