Growth linkages and policy effects in a village economy in Ethiopia: An analysis of interactions using a social accounting matrix (SAM) framework

Accelerating economic growth and poverty reduction are and continue to be the critical policy challenges in Ethiopia. The sluggish growth in agriculture coupled with lack of broad-based economic growth raises debates over the relevant direction and emphasis of development interventions in the country.

In this study, we develop a social accounting matrix (SAM) for a cereal dependent village economy in rural Ethiopia and examine relevant growth options in terms of their impact on output, household income, investments in human and environmental capital in the study village. Apart from providing a quantitative analysis of a village economy, the study considers a sectoral disaggregation that takes into account the diversity of not only economic activities in terms of supply response but also heterogeneity of rural households. This study also incorporates investment in human and environmental capital in the analysis of growth linkages using a village social accounting matrix-based framework. Using constrained and unconstrained SAM multipliers, growth linkages of different sectors are explored and activities that best promote growth and household income are identified. Since the growth linkage model is based on the detailed SAM estimated for the village economy, this helps to gauge the effects of policy reforms and strategies on growth, household livelihoods, and investment in human and environmental capital. Accordingly, some simulations are performed to investigate the trade-offs and complementarities of economic and environmental policies on the village economy. Key development pathways and sectoral investment priorities are also identified that help to move the village economy in the direction of sustainable development.