Southeast Asia faces high stranded asset risk from coal power investments

Southeast Asia has approximately 106 GW of active coal-fired generating capacity, behind only China, India, and the United States. The region has another 30 GW in the pipeline. If the Paris Agreement is fulfilled, there is a risk that these assets will become stranded. However, the extent of this risk remains largely unquantified. This study is the first to assess how uncertainties in renewable power development and carbon pricing affect the risk of coal-fired power plants becoming stranded assets across Southeast Asia, using a Monte Carlo-based analysis. The findings indicate that coal-fired plants currently operating or under construction could start becoming stranded assets by 2042, and that the total potential loss by 2060 could be in the range of USD 85–106 billion. If currently planned coal developments are included, the cost of stranded assets could rise to USD 100–123 billion and halve the lifetime of new coal-fired plants. To avoid future disruption and losses, it would be essential to halt the construction of new coal-fired power plants and start planning for early closures.