Climate variation effect on Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora) yield in Uganda

Climate variability poses a significant challenge to the improvement of crop productivity. Whereas the effects of climate variability have been widely explored for annual crops, its effect on perennial crops, including coffee, was underexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining the effects of temperature and precipitation changes on the yield of Robusta coffee. Utilizing plot-level panel data on coffee production alongside daily measurements of temperature and precipitation, we leverage the spatial and temporal variations in these climatic factors to estimate their effects. The findings from both random effects and fixed effects regression analyses reveal a nonlinear impact of temperature on coffee yield, with temperatures exceeding 28 °C leading to a significant reduction in yield. Optimal temperatures for Robusta coffee are identified between 23 and 27 °C. Additionally, the impact of precipitation on Robusta coffee yield is positive and significant across different model specifications. These results highlight the necessity for integrated climate adaptation strategies, including the development of climate-resilient coffee varieties, effective water management, and temperature mitigation practices such as intercropping with shade trees and plants.