Event Information
The next EEU seminar will be held on Monday the 23d of Mars at 12:10 – 13:00 in B44.
The seminar will be held by Runar Brännlund who will present on the topic of: A Changing Forestry Sector – Impacts on Economy and Climate.
Runar Brännlund is a Professor of Economics at Umeå University, specializing in environmental and resource economics. His research focuses on issues such as energy use, climate policy, and the economic management of natural resources.
When: Monday, Mars 23d at 12:10-13:00.
Where: B44
Speaker: Runar Brännlund
Online: Zoom
Summary: The objective is to describe the significance of forestry and the forest industry for the Swedish economy and to analyze the socio-economic consequences of different scenarios for managing Swedish forests over the next 100 years. Different scenarios lead to varying developments in growth, timber stocks, and possible harvesting levels, which in turn have direct and indirect effects of a private economic (market) nature, as well as effects on the land use sector's impact on net greenhouse gas emissions. The report's purpose thus has some bearing on possible socio-economic consequences of a changed national forest policy, but is also linked to the new LULUCF regulation. The results show that a scenario in which the forest is managed with focus on biodiversity and lower cutting levels results in positive climate benefits in the first 30-40 years due to an increase in timber stocks, compared to the reference scenario. However, in the latter part of the period the scenario results in reduced climate benefits and becomes negative. The size of the cost in the biodiversity scenario is strongly dependent on the forest industry's possibility to compensate the loss of domestic roundwood with imports of roundwood. If the industry cannot replace the roundwood loss with imports, the cost to society is more than twice as high as if the industry can fully replace the loss at the same price. The results from a scenario that is focusing timber growth show that the net gain is positive given the assumption that there is a domestic market for roundwood, compared to the reference scenario. The scenario is unprofitable only in the case where Swedish forest owners can buy and sell roundwood in unlimited quantities at a given price, while there is no climate benefit from material substitution.
The analysis in the report is based on a number of assumptions, each of which is more or less uncertain and naturally involves simplifications of reality. The results should therefore be interpreted accordingly. The perhaps most important assumption is that the harvesting levels that the different scenarios give rise to are not the result of any market outcome, but rather a rough projection of today's harvesting intensity. Changed behaviors, new products, the development of the green transition, etc., will affect both forest owners' choices to harvest and invest in forestry and consumers' demand for forest products, which together can lead to a completely different development than what is described in the scenarios. Furthermore, it should be noted that forests contribute with many other benefits besides timber and carbon sequestration, which have not been considered and valued in this study. It cannot be excluded that biodiversity scenario have significant positive effects on forest biodiversity, recreational values, etc., and that these values therefore make this scenario more or less profitable from a socio-economic perspective. The biodiversity focus scenario is designed specifically to benefit forest variation and diversity, and the cost reported here for that scenario can therefore possibly be seen as the price tag for achieving this forest diversity.