Skip to main content

Research to manage the Environment for Development

Recent publications

2015-04-20

Optimal Health and Environmental Policies in a Pollution-Growth Nexus

Highlights   • We study a dynamic overlapping-generations model where pollution worsens risk of future ill health. • The paper shows why policies aimed at insuring health risks and those intended to improve the environment are (and should be) deeply intertwined. • Our model generates a “pollution-growth nexus” in which capital accumulation is attractive from a growth perspective but might hurt welfare. •

2015-04-20

Voting under Tempatation

Within the confines of linear tax and complete market, we show that the efficiency force for a negative capital tax may not be strong enough to reverse the politico-economic force for a positive redistributive taxation under temptation and self-control preferences.

2015-04-20

Optimal Education Policy under Endogenous Borrowing Constraints

This paper studies optimal education policies under endogenous borrowing constraints in a standard life-cycle model. In a closed economy, a policy that appropriately bundles an education subsidy with an old-age pension can restore the complete market allocation. Such a policy also removes persistent indeterminacies and endogenous fluctuations that exist in its absence. In a small open economy, a similar policy may restore the complete market allocation for a wide range of parameters, a range much wider than previously believed.

2015-04-20

Price Volatility Forecast for Agricultural Commodity Futures: The Role of High Frequency Data

Realized measures of volatility based on high frequency data contain valuable information about the unobserved conditional volatility. In this paper, we use the Realized GARCH model developed by Hansen, Huang and Shek (2012) to estimate and forecast price volatility for four agricultural commodity futures. Empirical evidences, both in-sample and out-of-sample, show that the Realized GARCH model and its variants outperform the conventional volatility models that only use daily price data, such as GARCH and EGARCH.