Climate Change and Total Factor Productivity in the Tanzanian Economy

The paper analyses the economic impacts of climate change-induced adjustments on the performance of the Tanzanian economy, using a country-wide CGE model. The general equilibrium framework enables comparison of the effects of climate change to the overall growth of the economy, as responsiveness to shocks is likely to depend on the macroeconomic structure of the economy.

Effect of overall climate change on agricultural productivity is projected to be relatively limited until approximately 2030 and become worse thereafter. Our simulation results indicate that, despite the projected reduction in agricultural productivity, the negative impacts can potentially be quite limited. This is because the time scales involved, and the low starting point of the economy, leave ample time for factor substitutability (i.e., replacing reduced land productivity with increased use of capital and labor) and increased overall productivity. This indicates that policies that give farmers opportunity to invest in autonomous climate adaptation, as well as policies that improve the overall performance of the economy, can be as important for reducing the impacts of climate change in the economy as direct government policies for climate adaptation. The study results can inform policymakers when choosing between direct climate -change adaptation policies or measures aimed at strengthening the fundamentals of the economy, as ways of insulating against external shocks.

EfD Authors

Professor Jesper Stage Research Fellow
Dr. Mintewab Bezabih Research Associate

Keywords

Files

link to pdf 257.7 kB

Centers

eeu sweden
tanzania

Type of publication

Peer reviewed

Reference

Bezabih, M., Chambwera, M. and Stage, J. (2011): Climate change and total factor productivity in the Tanzanian economy. Climate Policy 11 (6): 1289 – 1302

Environment for Development

Environment for Development