Long memory is an important feature of the volatility of financial returns. We document that the recently developed Realized GARCH model (Hansen et al., 2012) is insufficient for capturing the long memory of underlying volatility. We develop a parsimonious variant of the Realized GARCH model by introducing the HAR specification of Corsi (2009) into the volatility dynamics. A comparison of the theoretical and sample autocorrelation functions shows that the new model specification better captures the long memory dynamics of volatility.
The credit reporting system plays an important role in a credit economy, alleviating information asymmetry and reducing transaction costs. This article reviews the historical developments and describes the current structure of China’s government-oriented personal credit reporting system. The article summarizes the rapid development of Internet finance since 2013, and analyzes the challenges and opportunities for the next generation of China's personal credit reporting system.
We introduce the realized exponential GARCH model that can use multiple realized volatility measures for the modeling of a return series. The model specifies the dynamic properties of both returns and realized measures, and is characterized by a flexible modeling of the dependence between returns and volatility. We apply the model to 27 stocks and an exchange traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index and find specifications with multiple realized measures that dominate those that rely on a single realized measure.
Using province-level yield data and daily weather data from 1980 to 2012, we investigated the responses of early rice, middle-season rice, and late rice yields to weather variations in China. In contrast to prior studies that found negative impacts of elevated daily minimum temperature (Tmin) on rice yield in tropical and subtropical regions, we discovered that rising Tmin increased early and late rice yields in China, with the positive temperature effects varying by rice-growth stage.
Renewable energy policies and competition for biomass: Implications for land use, food prices, and processing industry
We use a mathematical programming model to examine the impacts of simultaneous implementation of two US biofuel and bioenergy policies on commodity markets and spatial distribution of future cellulosic biorefineries.
We developed a mathematical programming model to estimate the supply of cellulosic biomass in Illinois at various biomass prices and examine the implications of biomass production for the maintenance costs of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). We find that Illinois has the potential to produce about 38.4–54.5 million dry metric tons (MT) of biomass in 2020 at a biomass price of $150/MT, depending on the production costs of cellulosic feedstocks, residue collection technology, and rates of yield increases of conventional crops.
Using a mathematical programming model, we estimate the economic potential of biomass supply from crop residues in China at various exogenously-given biomass prices and identify the areas that are likely to produce crop residues. Our analysis indicates that China can potentially produce about 174.4–248.6 million dry metric tons of crop residues per year when biomass prices are larger than $100 per metric ton. Rice straw is expected to account for about 47% of total residue production across the different biomass prices and residue production scenarios that we considered.
This paper studies the evolution of wealth inequality in an economy with endogenous borrowing constraints. In the model economy, young agents need to borrow to finance human capital investments but cannot commit to repaying their loans. Creditors can punish defaulters by banishing them permanently from the credit market. At equilibrium, loan default is prevented by imposing a borrowing limit tied to the borrower's inheritance.
Using a unique county-level panel on single-season paddy rice yield and daily weather outcomes from 1996 to 2009, we examined the impacts of weather variations on paddy rice yield in China.
Congestion plays a central role in urban and transportation economics. Existing estimates of congestion costs rely on stated or revealed preferences studies. We explore a complementary measure of congestion costs based on self-reported happiness. Exploiting quasi-random variation in daily congestion in Beijing that arises because of superstitions about the number four, we estimate a strong effect of daily congestion on self-reported happiness.
Abstract: In this paper, we examine the relative influence of individual decisions on joint household decisions, and whether and to what extent joint choices are more or less patient than individual choices in households. We find that both spouses have a significant influence on joint decisions, whereas husbands on average have a stronger influence than wives. Moreover, we find a substantial share of choice shifts from individual to joint household decisions, i.e. joint decisions are either more patient or more impatient than both individual choices.
Read about EfD research applied around the developing world during 2017. Take a look at each EfD Center's Stories!
This paper develops a stochastic dynamic programming model to investigate a type of dynamic enforcement strategy where the penalties for violations of environmental regulations are based on not only the current level of violations but also the firms’ past noncompliance records. The results show that firms’ optimal level of noncompliance would be a decreasing function of their accumulated
Truth behind Chinese Superstition: Non-linear Effects of Vehicle Traffic on Urban Air Quality in Beijing
Employing hourly data records from 2013 and 2014 in Beijing, we investigate the causal effects of vehicle traffic on air pollution. An arguably exogenous variation in vehicle use that results from the staggered and rotating driving restriction program there, combined with a widespread Chinese superstition about the unlucky number four, allows us to better track causal effects of traffic-induced air pollutants in a generalized 2SLS framework.
We pair a county-level panel of annual industrial output with a fine-scale daily weather dataset to estimate the responses of industrial output to temperature changes in China. We have three primary findings. First, industrial output is nonlinear in temperature changes. With seasonal average temperatures as temperature variables, industrial output increases by 0.7–1.0% for each 1°C increase in average spring temperature, and falls by 1.3–2.3% for each 1°C increase in average summer temperature.
This paper uses data from 2009 to 2014 to study the short- to medium-run effect of a driving restriction on transportation patterns in Beijing. The driving restriction specifies two numbers for each weekday so that cars with license plates ending in either of the numbers are banned from driving on that date. Because very few Chinese want to have their car licenses ending in 4, many more cars are driving on days when 4 is banned.
Can an Emission Trading Scheme Promote the Withdrawal of Outdated Capacity in Energy-Intensive Sectors? A Case Study of China’s Iron and Steel Industry
Outdated capacity and substantial potential for energy conservation are the two main features of energy-intensive sectors in developing countries. Such countries also seek to implement market-based options to further control domestic carbon emissions as well as to promote the withdrawal of outdated capacity and upgrade production levels. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of an emission trading scheme (ETS) for China’s iron and steel industry. The diverse array of normal and outdated capacities are modeled in a two-country, three-good partial equilibrium model.
Abstract: In this paper, we conduct a high stake experiment in rural China to investigate the determinants of individual and joint decisions regarding intertemporal choices, and estimate the relative influence of spouses on the joint decisions. We use the Convex Time Budget experimental method to elicit individual and joint decisions on how much money to allocate to an early and a later date. We find that the rates of return have significant effects on the decisions, yet both individual and joint decisions exhibit present-biased time preferences.
Abstract: We examine whether and to what extent joint choices are more or less patient and time - consistent than individual choices in households. We use data from an artefactual field experiment where both individual and joint time preferences were elicited. We find a substantial shift from individual to joint household decisions. Interestingly, joint decisions do not only generate beneficial shifts, i.e., patient and time - consistent shifts. On the contrary, a majority of the observed shifts are impatient and time - inconsistent shifts.
We use city-level data from the daily air pollution index and meteorological data on wind movement to see whether air pollution in China spills over from one city to another.
We use county-level data on crop yields and cropland to estimate the potential biomass supply from crop residues in China. We find that China can potentially produce about 250 million dry metric tons of crop residues per year when biomass prices are greater than $100 per metric ton. We also find that rice straw is expected to account for about 47% of total residue production, while corn stover (residue) can contribute 28% to total biomass production in China and wheat straw can contribute 25%.
To alleviate traffic congestion, one of the most pressing urban challenges in developing countries, Beijing’s government has been investing increasingly in subway infrastructure. In this study, using fine-scale daily traffic records from 2009 to 2013, we perform a regression discontinuity design to examine the average treatment effects of subway openings on traffic conditions in Beijing from 2009 to 2013. Three findings emerge from our empirical analysis. First, the opening of a new subway line resulted in a significant decline of daily passenger bus ridership, by 452,400 on average.
Using a unique city-level panel on the daily air pollution index (API) and fine-scale meteorological data from 2009 to 2013 in China, we examine the existence and the magnitude of spatial spillover effects of urban air pollution in Chinese cities.
Will a Driving Restriction Policy Reduce Car Trips? A Case Study of Beijing, China Suggests That Driving Restrictions Are Not Too Effective
A driving restriction policy is a politically acceptable policy tool to address traffic congestion and air pollution in some countries and cities, but evidence from Beijing suggests that it is not as effective as hoped. This type of policy, called a command-and-control measure, is more acceptable than a market-based pricing instrument, because it states a rule that applies to everyone, rather than imposing a tax or fee that might be felt more heavily by poorer people.
The EfD Report 2014/15 gives you an excellent overview of the EfD centres´ achievements during 2014 and ongoing work during 2015. Ranging from interesting policy stories on how economic research is put to use around the world to collaborative research programs, a wide range of publications, and our academic capacity building program.
Using a mathematical programming model, we estimated the potential biomass supply from crop residues in China at various exogenously-given biomass prices and identified the areas that are likely to produce crop residues. Our analysis indicated that China can potentially produce about 153.0–244.2 million dry metric tons of crop residues per year when biomass prices are larger than $90 per metric ton. Rice straw is expected to account for about 47% of total residue production across the different biomass prices and residue production scenarios that we considered.
Using a mathematical programming model, this study estimates the potential biomass supply from crop residues in China at various exogenously-given biomass prices and identified the areas that are likely to produce crop residues. The analysis indicated that China can potentially produce about 153.0-244.2 million dry metric tons of crop residues per year when biomass prices are larger than $90 per metric ton.
A review of Beijing׳s vehicle registration lottery: Short-term effects on vehicle growth and fuel consumption
Many cities worldwide have considered vehicle restriction policies to curb proliferating problems related to traffic and pollution.
Shale gas development in China can generate great potential economic benefits, but also poses serious environmental risks. In this paper, we offer a macro assessment of the environmental risks of shale gas development in China.
In this paper, we use the US shale gas experience to shed light on how China might overcome the innovation problem inherent in exploring and developing shale gas plays with complex geology.
Energy Policy is an international peer-reviewed journal addressing the policy implications of energy supply and use from their economic, social, planning and environmental aspects.
Forest Tenure Reform in Asia and Africa: Local Control for Improved Livelihoods, Forest Management, and Carbon Sequestration
Forest tenure reforms are occurring in many developing countries around the world. These reforms typically include devolution of forest lands to local people and communities, which has attracted a great deal of attention and interest. While the nature and level of devolution vary by country, all have potentially important implications for resource allocation, local ecosystem services, livelihoods and climate change.
A driving restriction policy, as one of the control-and-command rationing measures, is a politically acceptable policy tool to address traffic congestion and air pollution in some countries and cities in the world. Beijing is the first city in China to implement this policy.
The Environment for Development Initiative: lessons learned in research, academic capacity building and policy intervention to manage resources for sustainable growth
This article reviews the history of the Environment for Development (EfD) initiative, its activities in capacity building and policy-oriented research, and case studies at its centres in Chile, China, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa and Tanzania.
Highlights • We develop the first comprehensive survey of residential energy consumption in China. • A typical Chinese household in 2012 consumed 1426 kilograms coal equivalent. • Space heating accounts for half of energy demand. • A large rural–urban gap exists in terms of energy sources and end-use activities. • Results reveal challenges and opportunities for China׳s energy policy. Abstract
The joint EfD Report 2013/14 showcases the work undertaken by the Environment for Development Initiative.
This paper provides the first county-level analysis of the impacts of weather variability on rice yield in China, by compiling a unique panel on irrigated single-season rice and daily weather data. We found that temperature and solar radiation had statistically significant impacts on rice yield during the vegetative and ripening stages, while the effects of rainfall on yield were not significant.
Subjective well-being among preadolescents and their parents – Evidence of intergenerational transmission of well-being from urban China
This paper examines whether intergenerational transmission of happiness exists in China between preadolescents and their parents, and what factors are correlated with subjective well-being among them.
A Review of Beijing’s Vehicle Lottery: Short-term Effects on Vehicle Growth, Congestion, and Fuel Consumption
Many cities worldwide have considered vehicle restriction policies to curb proliferating problems of traffic and pollution.
This book is about land tenure policies from an international perspective. It adds on the first book published by Holden and Otsuka entitled The Emergence of Land Markets in Africa: Assessing the Impacts on Poverty, Equity, and Efficiency (2009) in a much deeper way with a stronger and clearer focus on policy issues.
We study household decision making in a high-stakes experiment with a random sample of households in rural China. Spouses have to choose between risky lotteries, first separately and then jointly.
A driving restriction policy, as a control-and-command rationing measure, is a politically acceptable policy tool to address traffic congestion and air pollution in some countries and cities. Beijing was the first city in China to implement this policy. A one-day-a-week driving restriction scheme was expected to take 20 percent of cars off the road every weekday.
This report presents the Environment for Development Initiative (EfD), its members and work during 2012/13. For a free hardcopy, please send an email to: firstname.lastname@example.org
This report presents EfD China, its members and work during 2012/13.For a free hardcopy, please send an email to: email@example.com
Forest land rights, tenure types, and farmers' investment incentives in China: An empirical study of Fujian Province
Purpose – The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of land rights and tenure types on farmers' investment behavior in Chinese collective forests, using household survey data from Fujian Province. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, the authors conducted a household survey in Fujian province of 520 randomly selected forest farmers. The authors used a random-effects Tobit model to estimate the impact of land rights and other components on, for example, tenure security and harvest quota, and the impact of tenure types on farmers' investment incentives.
As an international metropolitan area undergoing rapid development, Beijing is facing a sharp rise in the volume of motor vehicles and mobility, which has become the major contributor to the air pollution in this city.
A growing number of experimental studies focus on the differences between the lab and the field. One important difference between many lab and field experiments is how the endowment is obtained. By conducting a dictator game experiment, we investigate the influences of windfall and earned endowment on behavior in the laboratory and in the field.
Property rights, tenure security and forest investment incentives: evidence from China's Collective Forest Tenure Reform
This paper assesses how tenure reform in China's collective forest sector affects Chinese farmer households’ perception of tenure security and propensity to invest in their forestland. A large database consisting of information from 3,180 households in eight provinces from south to north is used to explore factors correlated with more strongly perceived tenure security and determinants of forest-related investment.
Hypothetical bias is one of the main issues bedeviling the field of nonmarket valuation. The general criticism is that survey responses reflect how people would like to behave, rather than how they actually behave. In our study of climate change and carbon emissions reductions, based on the increasing bulk of evidence from psychology and economics regarding the effects of making promises, we investigate the effect of an oath script in a contingent valuation survey.
A prevailing view in the literature is that social sanctions can support, in equilibrium, high levels of obedience to a costly norm. The reason is that social disapproval and stigmatization faced by the disobedient are highest when disobedience is the exception rather than the rule in society.