The efficient and perfect credit reporting system plays a key role in breaking through the development bottleneck of P2P. An analysis on the causes and defects for P2P platform acting as credit intermediary and a discussion about several credit models on the P2P platform will be inductive to finding some reasonable suggestions for the further development of P2P platform.
This paper constructs a theoretic model to study the behaviors of China local governments in environmental policy-making process. In our model, local governments make environmental policies under promotion incentives, while polluting firms produce according to such policies. The model predicts a Ushaped relationship between the GDP ratio of local secondary industry and the strictness of local environmental policies, which we use the 2003-2011 "China City Statistical Yearbook" panel data to test.
Based on the survey on 1 454 households in 24 forestry bureaus in 3 provinces, this paper used both MEL and OLS methods to evaluate the impact of state-owned forestry reforms on the inequality of household income. The study found that inequality of households in state-owned forestry regions has further aggravated and the reforms take the main responsibility for this phenomenon.
Since 2006, China began a property reform on rural forest land, which is called "the second land reform" after the implementation of China's rural household contract responsibility system. Using a unique household survey data, we analyze the impact of grassroots democratic decision-making on investment incentives of the property right reform on forest land.
[Objective] Based on the micro survey data of key state-owned forestry area, this paper analyzed the impacts of state-owned forestry region reform on the changes in employment, which would provide a useful reference for the policy of key state-owned forestry region. [Method] We described the changes of industries, departments and aspects of employment in state-owned forestry region by statistical methods. Furthermore, we applied an econometric model to estimate the effect of state-owned forestry reforms on the employments.
The authors use CHINAGEM, a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the economic effect and pollution reduction impacts of improved auto fuel economy standard in China. The policy change is modelled as shocks to production tax rate of two industries - petrol refine and motor vehicle parts. The results show that the shocks lead to higher labor cost, slightly decreased GDP and improved terms of trade. The majority of industries, such as motor vehicle manufacturing, will undergo downsizing because of new standards and
Empirical study on rural households’ demand for energy consumption in Western ethnical minority areas
Based on a household survey in western ethnical minority areas of Gansu and Yunnan province, this paper first describes rural households’energy consumption pattern, and further investigates the relevant factors determining households’demand for fuel wood consumption by using a Tobit model. The empirical results show that sample households have strong dependence on fuel wood consumption.
Based on the survey data of 1 454 households in 24 forestry bureaus of 3 provinces, this research used both MEL and OLS methods to evaluate the impact of the reform on household’s per-capita income in the key state-owned forest areas. The study found that the proportion of both non-forestry income and income from
Empirical study on compensation mechanism in the context of government’s purchase of ecological forest
Based on a household survey on farmers’Willingness To Accept (WTA) the goverment’s ecological compensation in Sichuan Province, this paper attempts to study the compensation mechanism in the context of goverment’s purchase of ecological forest by establishing the ecological forest supply curve. We find that, given the budget constraint of 500000 CNY, the appropriate purchase price is 5400 CNY/hm2, and the survey villages can supply 80% of their forest lands.
China is experiencing rapid urbanization. Its capital city, Beijing, experienced a 53 percent increase in population from 2001 to 2013. To address traffic congestion and air pollution, two of the most pressing urban challenges, Beijing has been investing heavily in transportation infrastructure. In particular, the subway system added 15 new subway lines with a total length of 410 km of over the 12-year period.
Tenure security in land is considered crucial in order to stimulate investment and create economic growth, for three reasons; higher expected returns from investment, better functioning land markets allowing land transfers to more efficient producers, and better access to credit (Demsetz, 1967; Besley, 1995; Brasselle et al., 2002). Land allocation has played a special role in China as a key resource that has been shared based on strong equity principles in rural areas where land has been the main resource pillar of the economy (Carter and Yao, 1998; Jacoby et al., 2002).
Coal has fueled China’s fast growth in the last decades, but it also severely pollutes the air and causes many health issues. The magnitude of the health damage caused by air pollution depends on the location of emission sources. In this paper, we look into the spatial distribution of coal-fired power plants, the major emission sources in China, and investigate the determining factors behind the distribution. We see an overall increase in installed coal-fired power capacity in recent years, with capacity leaps in some provinces.
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to attempt to investigate farmer's positional concerns in rural China, and how the positional concerns correlate with household expenditures on visible goods. Design/methodology/approach: The authors conduct a survey-based experiment to measure farmers' positional concerns, and employ econometric models to examine the determinants of the degree of positional concern and how the positional concern affects household expenditures on visible goods.
Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.
The Chinese government has allowed collective village forest land to pass into individualized ownership. The purpose was to alleviate rural poverty and stimulate investment in forests. Using data collected from 288 villages, in eight provinces, over three years, this paper measures the effect of the individualization on one aspect of forest investment, forestation. Because villages voted on the reform, we identify the causal effect of the reform by an instrumental variable estimator based on the countywide decision to offer the reform package.
Automobile usage and urban rail transit expansion: Evidence from a natural experiment in Beijing, China
Using individual travel diary data collected before and after a rail transit expansion in urban Beijing, the impact of urban rail accessibility improvement on the usage of rail transit, automobiles, buses, walking and bicycling, as well as the cross-area externality induced by congestion alleviation, is estimated. The results show that rail transit usage significantly increased for commuters residing in the affected areas and that the additional rail passengers were previously auto users, rather than bus passengers.
How may environmental regulation affect firm location choice? While this question has generated great research interest from high-standard, industrial economies, in this article we turn the spotlight to low-standard, developing countries and use China’s Census of Manufactures data during 2003–2008 to explore how firms with different ownership, during different policy regimes as well as from different industries may respond to environmental regulations in different ways.
This paper evaluates whether the spirit of capitalism can explain the equity premium puzzle. The spirit of capitalism implies that investors acquire wealth not just for consumption, but also to improve their social status. We set up a consumption-based capital asset pricing model incorporating this component. The simulated results from our calibrated model match the mean and the volatility of the equity premium observed in the data.
Revisiting the risk-return relation in the Chinese stock market: Decomposition of risk premium and volatility feedback effect
The empirical results of the risk-return relationship are mixed for both mature and merging markets. In this paper, we develop a new volatility model to revisit the risk-return relation of the aggregate stock market index by extending the Realized GARCH model of Hansen et al. (2012) with the Wang and Yang (2013) framework, in which the overall risk-return relation is decomposed into a risk premium and a volatility feedback effect.
Equity concerns have been an important obstacle to adopting congestion pricing, in both developed and developing countries. However, the existing evidence on the equity effects of congestion pricing has come only from developed countries. In this paper, we shed light on the distributional consequences of a congestion pricing scheme currently under consideration in Beijing. We find that under this scheme, which covers the areas within the city's third ring road, a very small proportion of motorized trips would be subject to the full congestion charge.
Long memory is an important feature of the volatility of financial returns. We document that the recently developed Realized GARCH model (Hansen et al., 2012) is insufficient for capturing the long memory of underlying volatility. We develop a parsimonious variant of the Realized GARCH model by introducing the HAR specification of Corsi (2009) into the volatility dynamics. A comparison of the theoretical and sample autocorrelation functions shows that the new model specification better captures the long memory dynamics of volatility.
The credit reporting system plays an important role in a credit economy, alleviating information asymmetry and reducing transaction costs. This article reviews the historical developments and describes the current structure of China’s government-oriented personal credit reporting system. The article summarizes the rapid development of Internet finance since 2013, and analyzes the challenges and opportunities for the next generation of China's personal credit reporting system.
We introduce the realized exponential GARCH model that can use multiple realized volatility measures for the modeling of a return series. The model specifies the dynamic properties of both returns and realized measures, and is characterized by a flexible modeling of the dependence between returns and volatility. We apply the model to 27 stocks and an exchange traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 index and find specifications with multiple realized measures that dominate those that rely on a single realized measure.
Using province-level yield data and daily weather data from 1980 to 2012, we investigated the responses of early rice, middle-season rice, and late rice yields to weather variations in China. In contrast to prior studies that found negative impacts of elevated daily minimum temperature (Tmin) on rice yield in tropical and subtropical regions, we discovered that rising Tmin increased early and late rice yields in China, with the positive temperature effects varying by rice-growth stage.
Renewable energy policies and competition for biomass: Implications for land use, food prices, and processing industry
We use a mathematical programming model to examine the impacts of simultaneous implementation of two US biofuel and bioenergy policies on commodity markets and spatial distribution of future cellulosic biorefineries.
We developed a mathematical programming model to estimate the supply of cellulosic biomass in Illinois at various biomass prices and examine the implications of biomass production for the maintenance costs of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). We find that Illinois has the potential to produce about 38.4–54.5 million dry metric tons (MT) of biomass in 2020 at a biomass price of $150/MT, depending on the production costs of cellulosic feedstocks, residue collection technology, and rates of yield increases of conventional crops.
Using a mathematical programming model, we estimate the economic potential of biomass supply from crop residues in China at various exogenously-given biomass prices and identify the areas that are likely to produce crop residues. Our analysis indicates that China can potentially produce about 174.4–248.6 million dry metric tons of crop residues per year when biomass prices are larger than $100 per metric ton. Rice straw is expected to account for about 47% of total residue production across the different biomass prices and residue production scenarios that we considered.
This paper studies the evolution of wealth inequality in an economy with endogenous borrowing constraints. In the model economy, young agents need to borrow to finance human capital investments but cannot commit to repaying their loans. Creditors can punish defaulters by banishing them permanently from the credit market. At equilibrium, loan default is prevented by imposing a borrowing limit tied to the borrower's inheritance.
Using a unique county-level panel on single-season paddy rice yield and daily weather outcomes from 1996 to 2009, we examined the impacts of weather variations on paddy rice yield in China.
Congestion plays a central role in urban and transportation economics. Existing estimates of congestion costs rely on stated or revealed preferences studies. We explore a complementary measure of congestion costs based on self-reported happiness. Exploiting quasi-random variation in daily congestion in Beijing that arises because of superstitions about the number four, we estimate a strong effect of daily congestion on self-reported happiness.
Abstract: In this paper, we examine the relative influence of individual decisions on joint household decisions, and whether and to what extent joint choices are more or less patient than individual choices in households. We find that both spouses have a significant influence on joint decisions, whereas husbands on average have a stronger influence than wives. Moreover, we find a substantial share of choice shifts from individual to joint household decisions, i.e. joint decisions are either more patient or more impatient than both individual choices.
Read about EfD research applied around the developing world during 2017. Take a look at each EfD Center's Stories!
This paper develops a stochastic dynamic programming model to investigate a type of dynamic enforcement strategy where the penalties for violations of environmental regulations are based on not only the current level of violations but also the firms’ past noncompliance records. The results show that firms’ optimal level of noncompliance would be a decreasing function of their accumulated
Truth behind Chinese Superstition: Non-linear Effects of Vehicle Traffic on Urban Air Quality in Beijing
Employing hourly data records from 2013 and 2014 in Beijing, we investigate the causal effects of vehicle traffic on air pollution. An arguably exogenous variation in vehicle use that results from the staggered and rotating driving restriction program there, combined with a widespread Chinese superstition about the unlucky number four, allows us to better track causal effects of traffic-induced air pollutants in a generalized 2SLS framework.
We pair a county-level panel of annual industrial output with a fine-scale daily weather dataset to estimate the responses of industrial output to temperature changes in China. We have three primary findings. First, industrial output is nonlinear in temperature changes. With seasonal average temperatures as temperature variables, industrial output increases by 0.7–1.0% for each 1°C increase in average spring temperature, and falls by 1.3–2.3% for each 1°C increase in average summer temperature.
This paper uses data from 2009 to 2014 to study the short- to medium-run effect of a driving restriction on transportation patterns in Beijing. The driving restriction specifies two numbers for each weekday so that cars with license plates ending in either of the numbers are banned from driving on that date. Because very few Chinese want to have their car licenses ending in 4, many more cars are driving on days when 4 is banned.
Can an Emission Trading Scheme Promote the Withdrawal of Outdated Capacity in Energy-Intensive Sectors? A Case Study of China’s Iron and Steel Industry
Outdated capacity and substantial potential for energy conservation are the two main features of energy-intensive sectors in developing countries. Such countries also seek to implement market-based options to further control domestic carbon emissions as well as to promote the withdrawal of outdated capacity and upgrade production levels. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of an emission trading scheme (ETS) for China’s iron and steel industry. The diverse array of normal and outdated capacities are modeled in a two-country, three-good partial equilibrium model.
Abstract: In this paper, we conduct a high stake experiment in rural China to investigate the determinants of individual and joint decisions regarding intertemporal choices, and estimate the relative influence of spouses on the joint decisions. We use the Convex Time Budget experimental method to elicit individual and joint decisions on how much money to allocate to an early and a later date. We find that the rates of return have significant effects on the decisions, yet both individual and joint decisions exhibit present-biased time preferences.
Abstract: We examine whether and to what extent joint choices are more or less patient and time - consistent than individual choices in households. We use data from an artefactual field experiment where both individual and joint time preferences were elicited. We find a substantial shift from individual to joint household decisions. Interestingly, joint decisions do not only generate beneficial shifts, i.e., patient and time - consistent shifts. On the contrary, a majority of the observed shifts are impatient and time - inconsistent shifts.
We use city-level data from the daily air pollution index and meteorological data on wind movement to see whether air pollution in China spills over from one city to another.
We use county-level data on crop yields and cropland to estimate the potential biomass supply from crop residues in China. We find that China can potentially produce about 250 million dry metric tons of crop residues per year when biomass prices are greater than $100 per metric ton. We also find that rice straw is expected to account for about 47% of total residue production, while corn stover (residue) can contribute 28% to total biomass production in China and wheat straw can contribute 25%.
To alleviate traffic congestion, one of the most pressing urban challenges in developing countries, Beijing’s government has been investing increasingly in subway infrastructure. In this study, using fine-scale daily traffic records from 2009 to 2013, we perform a regression discontinuity design to examine the average treatment effects of subway openings on traffic conditions in Beijing from 2009 to 2013. Three findings emerge from our empirical analysis. First, the opening of a new subway line resulted in a significant decline of daily passenger bus ridership, by 452,400 on average.
Using a unique city-level panel on the daily air pollution index (API) and fine-scale meteorological data from 2009 to 2013 in China, we examine the existence and the magnitude of spatial spillover effects of urban air pollution in Chinese cities.
Will a Driving Restriction Policy Reduce Car Trips? A Case Study of Beijing, China Suggests That Driving Restrictions Are Not Too Effective
A driving restriction policy is a politically acceptable policy tool to address traffic congestion and air pollution in some countries and cities, but evidence from Beijing suggests that it is not as effective as hoped. This type of policy, called a command-and-control measure, is more acceptable than a market-based pricing instrument, because it states a rule that applies to everyone, rather than imposing a tax or fee that might be felt more heavily by poorer people.
The EfD Report 2014/15 gives you an excellent overview of the EfD centres´ achievements during 2014 and ongoing work during 2015. Ranging from interesting policy stories on how economic research is put to use around the world to collaborative research programs, a wide range of publications, and our academic capacity building program.
Using a mathematical programming model, we estimated the potential biomass supply from crop residues in China at various exogenously-given biomass prices and identified the areas that are likely to produce crop residues. Our analysis indicated that China can potentially produce about 153.0–244.2 million dry metric tons of crop residues per year when biomass prices are larger than $90 per metric ton. Rice straw is expected to account for about 47% of total residue production across the different biomass prices and residue production scenarios that we considered.
Using a mathematical programming model, this study estimates the potential biomass supply from crop residues in China at various exogenously-given biomass prices and identified the areas that are likely to produce crop residues. The analysis indicated that China can potentially produce about 153.0-244.2 million dry metric tons of crop residues per year when biomass prices are larger than $90 per metric ton.
A review of Beijing׳s vehicle registration lottery: Short-term effects on vehicle growth and fuel consumption
Many cities worldwide have considered vehicle restriction policies to curb proliferating problems related to traffic and pollution.
Shale gas development in China can generate great potential economic benefits, but also poses serious environmental risks. In this paper, we offer a macro assessment of the environmental risks of shale gas development in China.
In this paper, we use the US shale gas experience to shed light on how China might overcome the innovation problem inherent in exploring and developing shale gas plays with complex geology.